Since the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling in Roe v. Wade in 1973, abortion has evolved into a central social issue in American politics of which Republican and Democratic voters are divided on. With the overturning of this ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last June, support for abortion access hasn’t been this strong in half a century, and momentum from both sides of the aisle is sure to have a profound impact on the rapidly approaching midterm elections.
The effect of Dobbs has already been witnessed in the voting booth. On Aug. 2, Kansas held a vote for a new state constitutional amendment, which would clear the way for a total abortion ban. Kansas, a deeply conservative state, voted for Donald Trump by 15% in 2020; in fact, Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Despite these past trends, and in large part due to grassroots efforts, the referendum was rejected with a resounding vote of 59% to 41%. The turnout for the primary election was ⅔ of the presidential election. This is utterly astounding.
Perhaps most remarkably of all: 100,000 independents voted on the issue. Kansas primaries are closed, which means only those registered with a party can vote for their respective candidate to represent them in the general election. Independents, who are not affiliated with any particular party, cannot vote in closed primaries, meaning 100,000 people showed up for the sole purpose of voting on this abortion ban.
Kansas isn’t the only example of voters being energized by Dobbs. In the week succeeding the decision, nationwide voter registration soared; of the newly registered voters, a whopping 70% were women, a statistic that has remained consistent since. In addition, 58% of independents say they would be more likely to vote in the midterms due to the ruling, a promising indication to Democrats of shifting voter priorities.
As for Republicans, it is hard to tell where their party stands. Blake Masters, Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona originally stated he was “100% pro-life,” supporting a ban on late-term and partial-birth abortion. His website has now been scrubbed of all anti-abortion rhetoric. Others like Tom Barrett, Scott Jensen, Tiffany Smiley, and Zach Nunn have walked back their previous stances as well.
Other Republicans have run in the opposite direction, choosing to embrace their party’s stance on abortion. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham recently proposed an egregious national ban on abortion after 15 weeks. Despite the fact that the majority of conservatives are pro-life, he has received little support from his colleagues, and backlash from Republican media outlets. That’s a first. It is worth noting that Senator Graham is not up for reelection in 2022.
More hopeful news for Democrats: a Fox News poll found that the percentage of voters that support legal abortion in all or most cases has jumped 13 points since May 2022. This means the political landscape has continued to shift in favor of legalized abortion, despite the Supreme Court’s ruling.
Although it is impossible to predict the outcome of the upcoming election, especially in a midterm year, Dobbs is shaping up to make a tremendous impact. Since the decision, Democrats have jumped into the polls. While recent elections have demonstrated the unreliability of polling, a much more promising piece of data further affirms this trend: every special election since Dobbs has gone in favor of Democrats.
It is never easy for the incumbent party to hold onto power in a midterm year; this election cycle is no different. While Democrats are wrestling with a number of their own obstacles, abortion very well may act as the rallying issue that will allow them to hold onto Congress.
